Overnight, while the US slept

Risk-off, dollar-on: Wall Street finished split overnight — the Nasdaq dropped about 2.1% and the S&P 500 fell roughly 1.3% as chipmakers and big tech were hit hard, while the more old-economy Dow actually edged higher. It was a classic rotation out of the crowded growth trade, helped along by a research note flagging the rising odds of a US rate hike.

Rates & DXY: The US 2-year Treasury yield (the part of the bond market most sensitive to Fed policy) pushed to fresh 2026 highs above 4.2%, while the 10-year yield eased to about 4.48% as nervous money sought shelter in longer-dated bonds. The DXY — the dollar's value against a basket of major currencies — is sitting around 101, its highest in over a year. Markets now put the chance of a September rate hike near two-thirds, up from less than a third a week ago, after new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting landed firmly on the hawkish (tighter-policy) side.

The dominant driver — peace premium unwinding: A US–Iran memorandum of understanding signed in Switzerland pushed oil down roughly 2% and, with it, the inflation-risk premium that had been propping up gold all month. This is the key diagnostic for metals: when a supply-side shock fades (oil coming down rather than spiking), the inflation fear that drives safe-haven gold buying drains away — and with the Fed leaning hawkish on top, real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation) push higher. That combination is bearish gold, even though "peace" sounds like a risk-on headline. This is demand for gold falling, not safe-haven panic rising.

Gold: trading 4110.25/4110.45. Day range 4090.98–4198.21; prior-day high/low 4220.99 / 4136.40. Gold has sliced clean through yesterday's floor and is hovering just above the session low. The 14-period RSI on the 15-minute chart (a momentum gauge — under 30 is "oversold," over 70 "overbought") sits at 36.7, so the move down is stretched but not yet exhausted. I'd be wary of shorting the hole here; I'd rather sell a bounce back into broken support.

Crypto: Bitcoin 62,511 (15-min RSI 55.7, ATR — average 15-min range — about $142); day 62,365–62,534, prior-day H/L 64,360 / 61,827. It's holding above yesterday's low but capped, with traders pointing to ETF outflows and some liquidity being pulled toward the upcoming SpaceX listing. Ether 1,665 (15-min RSI 57.8, ATR ~$4.8); day 1,660–1,664, prior-day H/L 1,733.02 / 1,631.52. Ether was the weak link, down more than 4% with heavy liquidations — it leads to the downside when risk sours.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.13834 — RSI 50.6 (neutral), ATR ~2 pips. Day H/L 1.13837 / 1.13820, prior-day H/L 1.14391 / 1.13759. The euro broke down hard and is pinned to its lows.
• GBPUSD 1.32041 — RSI 56.5, ATR ~5 pips. Day H/L 1.32049 / 1.31855. Holding up better than the euro, but the dollar tide is against it.
• USDJPY 161.526 — RSI 44.0, ATR ~3 pips. Prior-day H/L 161.741 / 161.269. The yen stays weak despite the Bank of Japan lifting rates to 1% last week; with the pair this high, Japan's Ministry of Finance intervention (the government stepping in to buy yen) is a live two-way risk — I won't be chasing this one higher.
• AUDUSD 0.69168 — RSI 42.7, ATR ~3 pips. Prior-day H/L 0.70066 / 0.69071. The Aussie was hammered and is the chart most exposed to this morning's local data.
• NZDUSD 0.56706 — RSI 48.4. Prior-day H/L 0.57234 / 0.56631. Dragged lower in sympathy with the Aussie.
• USDCHF 0.80969 — RSI 45.7. Prior-day H/L 0.81066 / 0.80733. The franc is firmer than most, getting a small safe-haven bid.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	~−1.3%	Lower	Risk-off
US 10Y	4.48%	Falling (flight to safety)	Mixed
US 2Y	>4.2%	Rising	Hawkish
DXY	~101	Rising	USD strong
Gold	4110	−$26 vs prior-day low	Bearish (peace premium unwind)
Bitcoin	62,511	−$1,849 vs prior-day high	Weak
Brent	lower	~−2%	US–Iran de-escalation

Normal liquidity session ahead, but with a high-impact local data point at 11:30.

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