Overnight, while the US slept

Hawkish Fed sinks risk: Wall Street sold off after the Federal Reserve's decision, with the Nasdaq down 1.34%, the S&P 500 off 1.21% and the Dow lower by 0.97%. The Fed left its policy rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75%, but the updated projections ("dot plot" — the grid showing where each official thinks rates are heading) pushed the median 2026 rate up to 3.8% from 3.4%, with more members now penciling in a hike than a cut this year. Officials also lifted their 2026 inflation forecast to 3.6% headline. It was new Chair Kevin Warsh's first meeting, and the stripped-down statement dropped the old language hinting at future cuts.

Rates & DXY: Treasury yields pushed higher as the market repriced for a harder Fed, and the US dollar index (DXY — the dollar measured against a basket of major currencies) firmed to around 99.5. Higher yields plus a stronger dollar is a textbook headwind for everything priced in dollars.

Gold — safe-haven air coming out: trading 4257.78/4258.04. The day swung violently, printing a 4382 high before unwinding to a 4219 low; prior-day H/L were 4354.93 / 4305.97, so we're now trading below yesterday's floor. Two forces are pulling the same way here. First, the hawkish Fed lifts real rates (interest rates after subtracting inflation — the true cost of holding gold, which pays no yield), and rising real rates are gold-bearish. Second, this is a supply-side de-escalation: the US–Iran peace deal due Friday is set to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restore oil flows, with Brent already back near two-month lows. When the threat to the financial system fades and the commodity shock reverses, the safe-haven premium that took gold above $5,400 in March bleeds out. I think the path of least resistance is lower while both of those hold.

Crypto: Bitcoin 64,217 (RSI M15 38.1, ATR $426); day 64,066–64,347, prior-day H/L 66,390 / 63,940. It's sitting heavy near the lows after shedding more than $2,000 from yesterday's high — hawkish Fed, ongoing ETF outflows and a generally risk-off tone. Ether 1,740.52 (RSI M15 42.5, ATR $14); day 1,727–1,745, prior-day H/L 1,806.87 / 1,726.17. Ether has been the bigger laggard all year and just broke its prior-day low.

Key FX:

• EURUSD 1.15036 — RSI 30.2 (oversold — stretched to the downside), ATR 14 pips. Day H/L 1.15036 / 1.15001, prior-day H/L 1.16166 / 1.1478. Gave back more than a full cent on the Fed; deeply stretched here.
• GBPUSD 1.32996 — RSI 34.4, ATR 18 pips. Heavy into today's Bank of England decision; prior-day high 1.34384 feels a long way away.
• USDJPY 160.585 — RSI 58.7, ATR 9 pips. The one major where the dollar is buying rather than the cross falling; 160+ keeps Japanese intervention (the Ministry of Finance stepping in to prop up the yen) on the radar.
• AUDUSD 0.70167 — RSI 34.8, ATR 12 pips. Risk-off and a firm dollar have it pinned near the lows.
• NZDUSD 0.57698 — RSI 36.0, ATR 11 pips. Same story as the Aussie, down from a 0.58354 prior-day high.
• USDCHF 0.79940 — RSI 66.1, ATR 12 pips. Dollar firmly on the front foot against the franc.

Cross-asset snapshot:

Asset	Now	vs Prior Close	Vector
S&P 500	lower	−1.21%	Risk-off
Nasdaq	lower	−1.34%	Risk-off
US 10Y	higher	Rising	Hawkish
DXY	~99.5	Firmer	USD bid
Gold	$4,258	−$48 vs prior-day low	Bearish (real rates ↑)
Bitcoin	$64,217	−$2,173 vs prior-day high	Weak
Brent	~$79	Near 2-month lows	Iran de-escalation

A genuinely binary macro morning: a hawkish central bank on one side, a cooling war on the other, and both pointing the dollar the same way.

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